Population growth and climate change

The United Sates Census Bureau predicts that the population of the United States will grow by another 100 million in the next forty years. In his book The Next 100 Million: America in 2050 Joel Kotkin sketches a mostly positive outlook on how  diverse and optimistic Americans will cope with this population increase

Mr. Kotkin’s text is a serious study and richly footnoted. His anti new-urbanist view is in apparent. He puts forth that even with this new growth the density of the United States will still be many times less than the population density in Europe. His position on the growth of new extra urban mini-metropolises throughout the heartland of America, supports my view that telecommuting and information transfer technologies will make living in major urban environment a life style not a career driven decision.

If we take as a given that Climate Change will be upon us sooner than later, where ill those people live and what will this population growth mean to the rest of us.

While no one for certain, can say what areas of the United States will be suitable for human habitation in fifty years, one thing for certain some places in America will get better for humans and others will get worse. If you read, and fully believe Dianne Dumanoski’s book The End of the Long Summer you might not be so optimistic. However, as I  believe that we are past the climate change tipping point, its a moot point. The population of the United Sates will grow significantly and climate change will shift our industrialized focus.

What does that mean to our future economy. Less consumer spending of scare resources and more group purchases or redistribution of resources through government. We will have to build new infrastructures to support our increased population and new infrastructure to support it where it lives.

Where will the new population go. No one knows for certain, except that it will go where the weather supports growth and to places (urban or otherwise) that provides for the spiritual and physical needs of Americans.

What does that mean?

More Local Everything

New villages, cities and towns that provide green economies in places that have good weather, rational water supplies and the potential for growing crops.

More small city growth where transportation and infrastructures can be funded locally without mega grants from the federal government.

More villages, cities and towns in areas with abundant green power of hydro, wind and direct solar.

More communities that provide local entertainment and opportunities to recreate in the outdo

Where will this take place?

Your guess is as good as any, my guess: the hill country of Texas, interior North and South Carolina, possibly Arkansas, Oklahoma and the Dakotas as well as the Intermountain West. It is unlikely to take place in the coastal states or anywhere with mega city growth has reached practical commuting and social management limits.

Looking for little signs that mark the way to post consumerism.

As observation and positive feedback is rarely a bad thing, I am always looking for large and small signs that we are emerging from the economic doldrums in the direction I have predicted.

When I was much, much younger, I learned that you find interesting things when you turn over rocks and logs in the woods. I rarely look for the obvious with my head up.

Today is June 26, Hands Across the Sands Day. Saying no to continued offshore oil drilling and yes to renewable energy sources. The oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico might have awakened us. The former Shell Oil executive John Hofmeister’s book Why We Hate the Oil Companies, is a good example of a rock to turn over.

Mr. Hofmeister makes no bones, that extracting oil is a nasty dirty business, that most of us do NOT want to know about how it is done. We want our cars and heat and light, but we do not want to know where it comes from. The oil spill in the Gulf is forcing us to to take a hard look at our addiction to oil. Mr Hofmeister states that while many oil companies are interested in renewable sources for fuel for the personal mobility industry (cars), it is up to Government to make the hard decisions, (forced by we the people, my comment) and set the policies that will take us towards renewable energy.

We just might be seeing the start of a small shift in the government in reaction to our changing outlook.

In a past blog, I predicted that everything will become local again. That also means that we will see changes locally first.

In my small home town of a few thousand souls, we hold a few touristy type “fairs” each year. I attended one last weekend. The turn out was as good as ever, and the number of vendors seemed to be stable from years past. Those would be signs of a stable local economy. However under the surface I noticed something different.

Fewer non essential type vendors, more clothes sales, utility items, more “green” items, more cash sales, with fewer vendors accepting credit cards. I asked a few vendors, if they had used credit in the past and they said they had. I asked why they didn’t now. COST and return. They believed that the cost of offering the credit was greater than the return. So these smaller than small entrepreneurs have returned to a cash basis economy (they did accept checks).

The most recent indications to me that we are inching away from a credit and consumer based economy.

• An awakening about the fossil fuel economy.
• A change towards thoughtful purchase of useful items rather than impulse no need consumption.
• Fewer credit card purchases.

 

The end of “Extraction Capitalism”

Don’t get me wrong. I believe in regulated capitalism as a means of betterment for all. However, “Extraction Capitalism” is a means of betterment of the few at the expense of the many.

There is an evident fact that the mining and other “extraction” industries move away when the mineral resources is depleted.

But where do extraction capitalists go when they have wrung the last cent out of the many? They become extinct!

Let me step back and define “extraction capitalism”. Extraction capitalism is not about making products, or improving society, or about making jobs. Its not even about making money. Its about moving wealth from one class of citizens to another. In our present case its about extracting wealth from the poor, the working poor, and the former middle class. The “extracted” wealth is then moved to the media/governing/banking class. I do not use that class term lightly. The media class is dependent on the governing  class for something to do  and the governing class is dependent on the banking class for financing its survival..

How does the media/government/banking class reallocate your wealth. Its simple, every time there is a monetary transaction on the planet the banks “extract” a share of the transaction. Because the banks “extract” a fee from your grocery store for credit card and debit transaction, all groceries are more expensive. The banks “extracts” wealth from you when you buy groceries. They extract wealth  from you whenever you buy goods and services. They extract wealth from you when your put money in even the safest “savings” accounts. They extract wealth if you invest in stocks and bonds. They extract wealth from you when the government “borrows” money to keep the media/governing/banking class operating.  I even pay a fee to pay my taxes with a credit card.

How can it be that the banks had their best year ever last year, when everyone on Main Street “lost” a significant segment of their wealth. Most of your wealth was not “lost” it was transferred to the media/government/banking class,

I watch the “Tea Party” movement and on TV, they are mostly middle aged and older and white, and I ask myself, how  much of their wealth are they willing to give to Fox News, Sarah Palin and their bankers before they realize that the “other  side”-the bad guys, the young and diverse are in the same peril of giving their wealth to the same media/government/banking class from the opposite direction. Either way the wealth, has been, and continues to move away from Main Street.

The bright side is that, like all “extraction” industries, extraction capitalism will just go away when the resource has been depleted. So when the money is gone from Main Street and there is no where for the “extraction” capitalist to look for wealth, the “Tea Party” members and the “Left Wing Socialists” on Main Street might just have to sit down together and figure out where we would like “capitalism” to go in the future.

Healthcare and Weekly RATS. We are now officially part of the way there.

Having recently returned from a vacation, without television or regular news, I need to get back into the swing of things.

Sunday brought us a good way towards some rational national health insurance system. The rest of the world laughs at us: “How can you have small business women and men making jobs when their jobs come with crappy pay and no healthcare”.

As much as the conservative insist the end is nigh, and socialism is run amok, this country needs some social purchases. As rugged independent individuals, we have been unable to build a system that cares for the sick, aged and dying. To build a good system for that, we will act together, much like Medicare and Social Security. yes it will take taxes, but we are among the least taxed people in the world and we get what we pay for.

Any way, the world as we know it is not coming to an end, and we will explore health insurance for at least a generation before we get it right.

Here comes “Weekly Rats”.  All is not good on Main Street in my town. A local roadside motel is advertising "weekly rats".

I can’t be sure if that’s a benefit, or an offer to reduce rates to meet the lousy prospects on our Main Street.

I can tell you, on our main street , jobs are still being lost, wages are being reduced and we are resetting how we go about living the “good life”

Who is that man behind the curtain?

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain… says the mighty OZ to Dorothy.

Who is that man behind the curtain? By now everyone who is not a member of the media/government class knows there is no one behind the curtain and we are on our own. Rationalizing your life style is not what corporations want. They want you to spend and buy in a credit less economy.

Banks are making money and its almost impossible to get a loan for a home. How is this possible?

This morning I did get a home loan, but as an investor not as a homeowner. I wasn’t exactly planning to buy as an investment, I was trying to buy a smaller home to move down.

I found a home that needed to be gutted and rebuilt, but that fit our near and far term needs better than our present larger and more expensive home. This morning I discovered that moving down market is considered an INVESTMENT move and not subject to the tax credits you get for moving to a new home, which only apply when moving up in price. In addition the term rates and down payments etc are higher for investment mortgages than owner occupant purchases.

I am pretty sure that I won’t get to buy this gut and remodel unit because of other bidders, but who knows? Now I have credit to buy another property in the near future if we find one that suits our needs.

The point of the matter is that everything the government, banks, financial institution and wall street are doing is an effort to rebuild a “consumer” economy.

I am pretty certain that without credit, consumer capitalism is dead in the water, so don’t count on either the Mighty Oz or the man behind the curtain, neither of them have a clue whats going on on Main Street..

Cash for Clunkers: Stimulus Street Theater and Sideshow, with Automobile Death Panels

from" ProCrushers.com

Abbie Hoffman may you rest in peace, you taught them well.

Wikipedia defines street theater and sideshow as follows:

Street theatre is a form of theatrical performance and presentation in outdoor public spaces without a specific paying audience.

In America, a sideshow is an extra, secondary production associated with a circus, carnival, fair or other such attraction.

So my take is the Cash for Clunkers program was both street theater at its best and brightest and a sideshow to the main event of the stimulus program. (albeit as small sideshow).

I will admit here, up front, that I had a front row seat for both.

My 13 year old jeep (191,000 miles and less than 18 MPG) was threatening a large expense in the near future, so I could not resist the chance for the federal government to fork over the down payment (or 18 months worth of payments). So OK I am a communist by "far right wing " definition, but so are 500,000+ other financially challenged citizens.

I would bet that there are some folks who were, and still are, vehement anti-stimulus activists who took the cash.

If you feel guilty about taking the money, repent!, and send me the cash. I promise to use it well.

One of the degrading parts of Cash for Clunkers was the meeting with the "Automobile Death Panel". I am pretty sure health care reform proponents were testing the final care consultations and end of life guidance, e.g. "death panel" as an idea slated for health care reform. (The consultation was eliminated in health care but it was NOT eliminated in the CARS program).

When you hand over the keys and the proof of registration and insurance (for the past year). The auto death panel walks you through the gruesome and painful last few minutes of your faithful ride.

The Clunkers are drained of their oil and given a lethal injection of sodium silicate (liquid glass) that hardens the engine. The engine runs coughing and spitting for a few minutes or more. This is a painful death for sure.

My last thoughts walking off the lot were of Dylan Thomas' great poem of dying:

Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.......
...........................................................................
Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright
Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

But hey, my new ride gets up to 37 MPG on the highway and I bought the 100,000 mile everything warranty so this ride won't be meeting my old ride in car heaven for a while.

PS. The CARS program ends today so be mollified that although you missed the show, you won't have to face a "death panel" when deciding the fate of a long standing companion.

We are all hoarders at heart.

A&E network is launching a new reality show called Hoarders. The trailer is an intriguing look at “hoarding” taken to the extreme. It's extrodinary look at "consumerism" at the extreme.

This week, my wife and I returned from a summer away.

We looked at our life’s collection (accumulation) of junk in a different way. What would an outsider view as of lasting value in our spaces?My wife and I have plenty of "stuff" we need to shed, so that those we leave behind others don' have to do the shedding. (We don’t plan on going any time soon, but its good to get an early start on any journey.

My sisters tell great stories of dispensing with my parents stuff in a forty foot dumpster. My wife dispensed with a lot of her parents stuff by having a contest called "stump the chump". The "good helper" relatives and friends would look at an object from the attic, they would try figure out what it was? or what it had done?. After making the best guess they put the object by the side of the road with a "free” sign and guess how long it would last before someone would drive by and pick it up. Try this when you are cleaning out the garage or basement. Pretty soon, complete strangers will be stopping by to help you get rid of your junk.

Don’t get me wrong, because my wife and I are "loaves and fishes" people. (the more you give away the more you get in return,) we have been forced to be brutal about dispensing with the unnecessary, trying to focus on "things" with intrinsic beauty that will find at least a single "new" life after we have moved on to some other plane.

Another helpful thing is that we have packed up and moved over twenty times in thirty two years of marriage. When all your stuff needs to fit in a Uhaul truck, you make good choices of what is necessary and valuable and what is just junk.

I am sitting in my new office at work. It’s a complete shambles with the detritus of a lifetime of work, absurd plastic awards and plaques, pictures of things I have worked on and hundreds of books (none rare) and a cascade of business training crumbs. There is a faded copy of my master thesis about a topic that is obsolete today. That's going in the paper recycle bin: a copy is in the library at the University of Missouri if I ever need it.

The crappy awards from defunct companies and from groups I can't even remember-in the recycle bin if there is any post-consumerism possibility.

There is hope for me. After the office let’s tackle one of the garages.


PS: TIPS for non-pathological hoarders.


Pack things in boxes, seal the boxes. If in six month you can't remember what’s in the box, throw it away without opening it. Chances are you won't miss anything.

Move often. And to smaller and smaller homes.

Buy a car with a smaller storage trunk or hatchback.

When promoted, throw away everything from your past work that will NOT enhance your career. Trust me, the cheesy award plaque from when you worked in the mailroom as an intern will not enhance your chances for the next VP slot.

Throw away your spouses “stuff” when they aren't watching. Apologize and buy something nicer to replace it, if you get caught.

Marketing Luxury Goods in the Post Consumer Era? Is this an Oxymoron?

In a April 07 Blog by David Armato ( L+E ) presented a great graphic portraying the post consumer marketplace from his point of view. I have copied it here without permission but with citation. By David's own blog this an example of "word of mouth advertising" he should be thankful for the positive lift.

lifted from: http://darmano.typepad.com/logic_emotion/2009/04/why-marketing-in-a-post-consumer-era-wont-look-like-marketing.html

If you read my Blog Britney Spears, Facebook, Twitter and the Post Consumer World. Aug 2, 2009 you already know some of my opinions about marketing in the post consumer era.

Marketing won't die, it will just get more cut-throat, insidious and subliminal.

My response to the subliminal: I will try to avoid buying anything I see advertised or "think" I have seen advertised, without a walk around the block before I make the purchase. Exempting breakfast cereals and other non-branded food items. For me, basic food is non-discretionary spending. Others might consider an iPhone more important than food, and who am I to judge?

What will change in the post-consumer world is discretionary spending. We will have less to spend. (Anyone with a 401K plan, a job that earns normal wages, or a home as part of their equity already has less.)

There will always be those who can afford luxuries without thought. (The One Percenters) Most of us, the Ninety-nine Percenters, will have smaller credit lines in the post-consumer era and our luxury purchases will be fewer and hopefully better thought out.

Maybe the post-consumerist will become a more deferred gratification type luxury buyer. Skip the daily $8 coffee and buy the $400 espresso machine from savings only fifty work days later. (no credit card charges).

Many economists, including Alan Greenspan, say that the same conditions of the human spirit will lead us back to the same place we were in 2007. I agree, however it took us 25 years for the stock market to reached its pre-1929 levels. If thlast year was akin to the great crash then we won't be back to our old ways soon, even if the banks change their current tightened lending. See my July 7th posting for information on the consumer lending crunch.

In the post consumer era, luxury goods will command even higher prices due to a shrinking market place and increased costs in marketing and delivering those luxury goods. (Economics 101).

Will luxury markets ever die. NO, they just will become just that "luxury markets". I might find it necessary to have a laptop computer for my work, but will I buy the most expensive one. I used to, but now I think not.

Some of the post-consumer literature contends that a loanership economy might grow, others like the Eden Project think the Big Lunch will increase social activism and community in the post- consumer era.

I will explore these and other "post-consumerism as social change catalyst" ideas in future blogs.

One thing I am sure of: high powered marketing of stuff you don't really need will continue unabated in the post-consumer era.

Britney Spears, Facebook, Twitter and the Post Consumer World.

The July 24th Issue of USA Today Money page B1 had three interesting articles that are best read together. I will take the editorial license to combine them here. In Rally pits optimists vs pessimists the core argument was that the optimists see companies making profits by slashing costs as proof that the economy is recovering. If your revenue is going in the tank and you can increase profits continuously the argument goes, you can make lots of profits on no work. (Sort of like the mortgage industry was for a while) The optimists were gloating that the pessimists were "missing out on gains"

The second article was about the Candies ads with Brittany Spears that were not released on TV but were first introduced on "Facebook" and "BritneySpears.com", as well as to Britney's 2.5 M Twitter "followers" (as they are called) Isn't that what hey called Jim Jones disciples?

See this full article in USA today Back-to-school Pitches go social

Hidden in this article was a gem. Back-to-school spending is expected to be down 7.7% this year. That means your teenage daughter will still get the $199 Bebe jeans, but she just might have to cut down on her designer cosmetics to the tune of about $50. Or god forbid, have to wear something twice. My prediction, lots more teenage crime to get the stuff that they can't live without. Keep your eyes out on that trend.

A 7.7% decrease doesn't sound like much (I think it will be more) but it comes on top of last year's falls and precedes next year's fall in consumer spending. Something will have to fill that consumer need gap for our teenage and pre-teen children. I don't know what it is, but I sure am trying to figure it out.

On another note, in the same article Forrester Research predicts social networking advertising to children will rise from a paltry $455M in 2008 to $3.1Billion in 2014. That's a big bet, and predictably that's a necessary one for consumer products makers who are facing a real decline in available cash for discretionary consumer spending.

All things considered with education costs and health care and other non-discretionary costs rising and wages falling, discretionary spending for students will be heading south for a long long time.

The last of page 1B articles was about the increase of the minimum wage to $7.25. That news should be a counter to post-consumerism. More money for the masses to spend on stuff they don't need! Alas! a good portion of that article was about reduced hours for most minimum wage earners. they have more time on there hands and less cash to spend.

So this is what we should read. Page B1 in one run-on sentence.

The optimists think we can get back on track by cutting costs to zero to increase profits, marketers think we need to spend eight times as much on Facebook and Twitter to chase 7.7% less spending and the minimum wage is rising while wages are falling.

Sounds like a post consumer alert.

The Effluence of Affluence.

From The WiseGeek

According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the average American produces about 4.4 pounds (2 kg) of garbage a day, or a total of 29 pounds (13 kg) per week and 1,600 pounds (726 kg) a year. This only takes into consideration the average household member and does not count industrial waste or commercial trash.

If this sounds like a staggering number, you would be surprised to know that Americans are not the number one producers of garbage in the world. In Mexico, the average household produces 30 percent more garbage than in America.

http://www.wisegeek.com/how-much-garbage-does-a-person-create-in-one-year.htm

I think the reason that Mexico has more waste than we do is that they get almost all of our junk that doesn't end up endlessly recycled through "garage sales". The ultimate resolution of Reagan era "trickle down " economics.

My search for "garage sales" on Bing resulted in 30,7000,000 hits. Searching "yard sales" added another 20,600,000. There are approximately 110,000,000 households in the United Sates, then for every 2.05 household in the U.S. there is one "garage sale" or "yard sale" website.

One of the more interesting hits was the Henrik Bering review called "Royal Yard Sale" of The Sale of the Late King's Goods: Charles I and His Art Collection by Jerry Brotton.

The book and review describe the disposition of the art collection of Charles 1 of England. Who, it appears, acquired a lot of his work at a variety of distressed "yard sales" of his fellow monarchs.

When Charles fell on "hard times" he fell hard, culminating with his revolt against Parliament and his beheading on January 29, 1649. Parliament decided to pay for some important things with Charles art so the first recorded Anglo-Saxon yard sale took place. (I am sure there were earlier prototype but this is a good one)

• The sale commenced in October 1649. Things did not get off to a great start. By releasing enormous quantities of art all at once, they flooded the market. Some former royalists were naturally hesitant about the idea of buying their late king's possessions, while Puritans were not supposed to harbor such aesthetic desires. This did not prevent three enterprising colonels, acting on behalf of international buyers, from making excellent buys, snatching up some of the best pieces. Others just sat back and waited for prices to fall............ The sale petered out when Oliver Cromwell was installed as Lord Protector of the Commonwealth of England, Scotland, and Ireland in 1653. Cromwell was no fool. .......

http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/4884421.html

The royal yard sale netted $26,500 pound (1649) a large sum but my guess is the appreciated value of some for this art in 350 years is staggering.

Another interesting hit was the Interior Design Institute of British Columbia they held a garage sale on June 20, 2009 http://www.salari.com/node/296. it was to benefit "Habitat for Humanity", but the idea struck me as interesting and I bet there were some very chic and over priced tchochkes on the tables.

I couldn't find any "institute", "organization" or other national or international agency for "garage sales" . The closest thing would be eBay but that's on-line and not "live performance" so there is a window of opportunity for a wise Post Consumerism Blog follower.

Another item I think deeply about, could we pay off the national debt by collecting taxes on garage sales. Would we tax the sale price or the "value price. (more on that later) I am not alone here

At a recent Longmont (Colorado) City Council meeting, councilwoman Sarah Levison was so concerned a local estate sale was not collecting sales tax that she called authorities to "go out there and figure out what was going on."

Levison voiced her concerns during a Tuesday's City Council meeting, which was exposed on the Longmont Advocate blog written by local activist Chris Rodriguez.

The councilwoman's words say it all.

"I noticed that they were not collecting taxes for the city of Longmont," said Levison. "I wonder if there is any system to check on when there are professionally run estate sales to ensure that we are collecting taxes. I hate to think that we might have lost several hundred dollars of tax income that day. I'm also wondering whether or not we could connect with the state to find out if they reported the amount of state sales tax and if we could go back and try to collect it. We need every dime we can get these
days."

http://facethestate.com/buzz/17184-longmonts-levison-digs-deep-tax-revenue

In my neck of the summer woods, in the Pacific Northwest we hold a 28 mile long Memorial Day wekend community garage sale. Lets say 5% of the community takes part or 150 homes. If each sale nets $1,000 and the tax rate is 8% that's $12K lost sales tax to the state.

If there are 110,000,000 home in the United States and 5% have annual garage sales that's 5.5 M homes times $80 tax or $440,000,000 lost revenue. Not enough to make a dent in our problem, but it's still spending money for government.

Back to the sale price or the value price issue.

Neither I, nor my wife, are garage or yard sales shoppers. We do buy most of our clothing and shoes on-line from trusted discount retailers with attractive return polices, like free shipping of return items. My wife sometimes orders two sizes and then returns ones that don't fit. She also likes to shop at second hand stores, and we both shop at the discount clothiers, but we don't normally do yard sales.

That said, I had decided to punish myself this summer (a very early American idea) after getting a $268 speeding ticket, by forgoing a new gas barbeque grill.

Our charcoal grill of 20 plus years is still hale and hardy due to an obvious manufacturing defect that made the steel too thick, to either rust out or burn through.

The other night, we were talking to our neighbors, who are wonderful and frugal folks. Amoung their recent yard sales purchases were two motor scooters with 160 kilometers on them, helmets included for $1000 (for both). Retail sale new about $2200. We were impressed. We mentioned that we might be buying a gas grill at a yard sale deferred until "next summer" due to my punishment.

A few days later they stopped by to say a yard sale down the street had a decent grill for $20 with a tank. Tanks retail for about $33 (plus tax) at your local home and yard store, so the grill was actually thrown in for free. I went down a few blocks and the price had been reduced to $15 and the tank was at least half full and the igniter still worked. The retail for this grill and tank is about $135 plus sales tax. My price at yard sale is about a 90% discount. I did have to power wash it though.

I must have the bug, but I will be careful. Saturday I was dropping my considerably less than 29 lbs of weekly garbage off at our compactor/transfer station and spied a really dirty outdoor chair in the "Freebie" area. Upon closer observation it was completely coated with dirt that a good power washing would resolve. Now I am the proud owner of a $15 lawn chair, perfectly good and clean.

My question is should I list this as income on my federal tax returns next year?