Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Some small prognostications

Change is coming, as it always does. Just look back 26 years. In 1984 Canon introduced the digital fax machine and everything changed. We began to expect perfect information instantly. Within a decade we had the internet, and now fax machines are becoming harder to find than an honest politician.

As I work more and more from home, I have become a little more conscious of some of the good things that technology is bringing, which help us to become less “thing” oriented. Just a few things: no more massive stereos; music is electronically downloaded not shipped and stored in piles of vinyl or acrylic; no more need to shop for stuff, you can do it on line, and not buying something is easier.

Things to expect to go away within a generation:

  • Books, bookstores and libraries (as we know them today).
  • Cash money and checks.
  • Wrist watches.
  • Music companies, CD’s or any non-internet delivery of music.
  • The US Post Office.
  • Land line telephones.
  • Keyboards of any kind (voice recognition is coming soon to you)
  • Broadcast television.
  • Free unfettered news.
  • Daily commuting to work.
  • Travel agents.
  • Real estate agents.
  • Investment advisors (no money no need!).
  • Garage door openers and other remote controls (replaced by iphones).
  • Nearly free internet and broadband access.
  • The desk top PC.
  • Privacy (already gone)

Things that we can expect to decrease as a part of of “self evaluation” factors

  • Constant travel. (It becomes a seldom used luxury).
  • New gasoline powered automobiles.
  • Useless consumption.
  • $8 Lattes.
  • Our real estate portfolios.

Things that will never go away

  • A good pair of shoes.
  • The little black dress.
  • Sunscreen.
  • Cats and dogs.
  • Beer, wine and whiskey.
  • Movie theaters or their descendants.
  • Death and taxes.
  • Sunrise and sunset.

This has been a fun game, and I will play it again some time.

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